Why the headlines don’t tell the whole story for Perth buyers
There has been a lot of noise recently about a possible property downturn in Australia.
Depending on the headline, you may have seen warnings about falling prices, slowing buyer demand, rising listings or softer auction results. And while some of that commentary may be relevant in markets like Sydney and Melbourne, it does not automatically apply to Perth in the same way at this time.
Perth is operating under a very different set of conditions. Listings have risen but REIWA states the current selling timeframe is still well below the 50-day average seen in the five years before COVID. Current Days on Market in Perth is 13-14 days. 2 weeks to sell a house. Comparatively, days on market for Sydney are currently sitting around 30 days – still not a long time, but a shift all the same.
The better question is not simply, “Are property prices falling?”
The better question is:
What does the current market actually mean for your own home loan, borrowing capacity and property strategy?
Because for most people, a short-term property downturn is not as relevant as the media makes it sound, unless you are trying to buy and sell for profit in a relatively short window.
For everyday buyers, refinancers, upgraders and long-term home owners, the real issue is not whether the market moves slightly up or down month to month. The real issue is whether the numbers work for you.
Perth is not Sydney or Melbourne
Recent property data shows that Sydney and Melbourne have been under more pressure than Perth.
Cotality’s April 2026 housing data showed national home value growth easing, with Sydney and Melbourne recording monthly falls of 0.6%. Perth, however, was still showing much stronger momentum, with values rising 2.1% in April and adding more than $21,000 to the median dwelling value.
PropTrack’s May 2026 data was softer and showed Perth recording a slight monthly fall of 0.1%, its first monthly decline since late 2024. However, Perth prices were still 20.6% higher year-on-year.
That is an important distinction.
A small monthly movement after a very strong period of growth is not the same thing as a major downturn.
It may mean the market is cooling. It may mean buyers have a little more breathing room. It may mean sellers need to be more realistic. But it does not necessarily mean Perth property is suddenly collapsing.
Perth is easing, not necessarily falling apart
In our view, the more balanced way to describe the Perth market is this:
Perth is easing from an extremely strong market, not necessarily entering a broad-based downturn.
There are signs of change. Listings have increased. Some buyers are becoming more cautious. Affordability is stretched. Interest rates have affected borrowing capacity. Some properties may no longer attract the same level of competition they did six or twelve months ago.
But Perth still has several strong market supports, including:
- tight housing supply
- low rental vacancies
- strong population and employment fundamentals
- ongoing demand from first home buyers and investors
- limited established housing stock in many desirable suburbs
- a significant lift in values over the past year
SQM Research reported that Perth listings increased in May 2026, rising 16.0% over the month to 15,230 dwellings. However, listings were still 9.8% lower than May 2025 levels.
That suggests conditions may be loosening, but it does not yet point to an oversupplied market.
Perth’s rental market also remains extremely tight. SQM’s April 2026 vacancy data put Perth’s rental vacancy rate at 0.6%, which is still very low by historical standards.
This matters because tight rental conditions can support investor demand, reduce selling pressure for some owners, and keep housing demand relatively firm.
Why a downturn may not matter as much as people think
Property downturns make dramatic headlines, but for most people, they are not the whole story.
If you are buying a home to live in for the next five, ten or twenty years, a short-term movement in property values may not be the deciding factor.
If you are refinancing, your focus is usually not whether the market is up or down this month. Your focus is whether you can access a better loan structure, reduce repayments, consolidate debt, improve cash flow or pay your home loan off sooner.
If you are upgrading or downsizing, a softer market can sometimes work in your favour, especially if you are buying and selling in the same market.
If you are a first home buyer, a calmer market may give you more time to make a considered decision, complete due diligence and negotiate more effectively.
The people most exposed to short-term market movements are generally those trying to buy and sell quickly for profit, or those relying on rapid capital growth to make the numbers work.
For everyone else, property is usually a longer-term decision.
Home loans are individualised
This is where a lot of the media commentary becomes too broad to be useful.
A property market headline does not tell you:
- how much you can borrow
- which lenders will assess your income most favourably
- whether your deposit is sufficient
- whether your existing debt is limiting your options
- whether a guarantor structure could help
- whether refinancing makes sense
- whether your property valuation will support the loan
- whether your offer strategy is realistic
- whether your loan structure suits your longer-term goals
Two people can be buying in the same suburb, at the same price point, in the same market, and still have completely different lending outcomes.
That is because lenders assess borrowers differently. Policies vary. Living expenses matter. Credit conduct matters. Income type matters. Existing debts matter. Deposit source matters. Property type matters.
So while market data is useful, it is only one part of the decision.
The more important question is:
What does the data mean for your situation?
If you are buying now, the key is offer strategy
In a market that is changing, the offer amount becomes even more important.
When a market is running hot, buyers often feel pressured to move quickly, offer aggressively and compete hard. When the market starts to ease, there may be more room for strategy.
That does not automatically mean every buyer should make a low offer. It means buyers should understand the property, the suburb, recent comparable sales, buyer demand, days on market and the likely motivation of the seller.
The right offer strategy may depend on:
- how long the property has been listed
- whether the asking price is realistic
- how many competing buyers are interested
- recent sales of similar properties
- whether the property has already had price reductions
- whether the property is unique or easily substituted
- the buyer’s finance position
- valuation risk
- settlement terms
- subject-to-finance conditions
- the buyer’s long-term plan
This is where working with Base Home Loans can be extremely helpful.
We can help you look at the numbers before you make an offer, so you understand your borrowing capacity, lender options, deposit position and potential valuation risks before you commit.
Data matters, but so does finance strategy
A property may look affordable based on the advertised price, but that does not mean it will work from a lending perspective.
Before making an offer, it is important to understand:
- your true borrowing capacity
- your deposit and contribution requirements
- likely lender options
- whether lenders will accept your income type
- how existing debts affect your borrowing power
- whether the property type could create lending issues
- how much buffer you have
- what repayments may look like
- whether the offer price is supported by comparable sales
- how a lender valuation could affect approval
This is especially important in a shifting market.
If prices are easing, valuations can become more sensitive. If buyers overpay, the lender valuation may come in lower than the purchase price. If borrowing capacity is tight, even a small difference can matter.
That does not mean buyers should be fearful. It means they should be prepared.
A cooler market can create opportunity
A softer Perth market is not necessarily bad news for buyers.
In some cases, it may mean:
- less pressure to make rushed decisions
- more room to negotiate
- fewer extreme offers
- more realistic sellers
- better conditions for first home buyers
- more time for finance due diligence
- improved opportunity for strategic upgrading
- greater focus on value rather than panic buying
For buyers who are well-prepared, a changing market can be an opportunity.
The key is not trying to perfectly time the market. The key is knowing your numbers and making decisions based on your own position.
Should you wait for prices to fall?
This is one of the most common questions buyers ask when the media starts talking about a downturn.
The answer depends on your personal circumstances.
Waiting may make sense if:
- your deposit is not ready
- your employment situation is uncertain
- your borrowing capacity is too tight
- your repayments would be uncomfortable
- you need time to reduce debt
- you are relying on unrealistic price falls
- you do not understand the market you are buying in
Buying now may make sense if:
- you have stable income
- your borrowing capacity has been properly assessed
- you have a sufficient deposit
- the repayments are manageable
- you are buying for the long term
- the property suits your life and goals
- you can negotiate a fair price
- your finance strategy is strong
The important thing is not to make the decision based on headlines alone.
A downturn headline does not tell you whether buying now is right or wrong. It simply tells you that market conditions may be changing.
Your personal numbers tell you much more.
What about refinancing?
A property downturn is also not automatically a problem for refinancers.
For many homeowners, refinancing is about improving the loan, not selling the property.
You may be looking to:
- reduce your interest rate
- lower repayments
- consolidate higher-interest debt
- restructure your loan
- access equity
- fund renovations
- separate finances after divorce or separation
- move from interest-only to principal and interest
- set up a better long-term debt reduction strategy
The key issue is whether your current equity position, income and loan structure support the refinance.
If property values have increased significantly over recent years, many Perth homeowners may still have strong equity even if the market cools slightly.
Again, the question is not simply, “Is the market going down?”
The question is:
Does refinancing make sense for your current loan, property value, income and long-term strategy?
The Base Home Loans view
We do not believe Perth should be viewed through the same lens as Sydney or Melbourne.
Yes, the Perth market is showing signs of easing. Yes, it is important not to overpay. And yes, market conditions can change.
But the current data does not support a panic-driven view that Perth is in the same position as the more pressured eastern capital city markets.
For most people, the more useful focus is:
- Can I afford the loan?
- Is the property a good fit?
- Am I paying a fair price?
- What does the data say?
- What will the lender think?
- Is my finance approval strong?
- Do I have enough buffer?
- Does this decision support my long-term goals?
That is where individualised home loan advice becomes so important.
At Base Home Loans, we help buyers, homeowners and investors understand their borrowing capacity, compare lender options and make finance decisions based on real numbers, not media noise.
If you are thinking about buying, refinancing or restructuring your home loan, the best place to start is with a clear strategy.
Before you make an offer or make a major finance decision, speak with Base Home Loans.
We can help you understand your numbers, assess your options and approach the market with more confidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Perth property going down?
Recent data suggests Perth’s market is cooling, but not necessarily entering a broad downturn. Some monthly indicators have softened, but Perth values remain significantly higher than a year ago and the rental market remains very tight.
Is Perth different from Sydney and Melbourne?
Yes. Sydney and Melbourne have shown more obvious price weakness in recent data. Perth has also started to ease, but it has stronger annual growth, tighter rental conditions and different supply-demand dynamics.
Should I wait for Perth property prices to fall before buying?
That depends on your circumstances. Waiting may help some buyers, but it may also mean missing suitable properties or facing different lending conditions later. Your borrowing capacity, deposit, repayments and long-term goals matter more than trying to perfectly time the market.
Can a cooler market help buyers?
Yes. A cooler market can sometimes give buyers more room to negotiate, more time to complete due diligence and less pressure to make rushed decisions. However, good properties can still attract strong interest.
Why is offer strategy important in a changing market?
When market conditions shift, the right offer amount becomes critical. Buyers need to consider comparable sales, property demand, seller motivation, valuation risk and their own finance position before making an offer.
Can Base Home Loans help me decide what to offer?
Base Home Loans can help you understand your borrowing capacity, lender options and potential valuation risks before you make an offer. While we do not provide property valuation advice, we can help you approach the finance side with much more clarity.
Does a downturn affect refinancing?
Not always. Refinancing depends on your income, loan balance, property value, equity and lender options. If your property has increased significantly in value over recent years, a small market movement may not materially affect your ability to refinance.
Is now a bad time to buy in Perth?
Not necessarily. For long-term buyers with stable income, a clear finance strategy and a realistic offer approach, a changing market can still present opportunities. The key is to make decisions based on your own numbers rather than broad headlines.
Disclaimer: The information provided on this blog is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or professional advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, mortgage laws and regulations can change, and individual circumstances may vary. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial advisor or mortgage broker to assess your specific situation and needs. Base Home Loans is not responsible for any actions taken based on the content of this blog. Always conduct your own research and consider seeking professional advice before making financial decisions. The examples used here are illustrative in nature and do not reflect any actual people or clients.
