The Reserve Bank has kept the cash rate on hold at 4.1 per cent for the third month straight at their September meeting yesterday. The meeting was to the last for outgoing RBA governor Philip Lowe’s who has reached the end of his seven year term.

The decision leaves the cash rate at its highest since April 2012. It is the fourth time the RBA has paused its current rate-hiking cycle since it first began raising them in May 2022. However, the bank has flagged the need for further increases, with inflation and the Chinese property market remaining points of concern.

The take out from the RBA rate decision

The RBA’s decision to leave interest rates on hold for another month was largely consistent with the expectations of economists and financial markets, after inflation cooled to 4.9 per cent in July — lower than forecast, but above the central bank’s 2-3 per cent target range.

In his final statement as RBA governor, Mr Lowe said although inflation was declining, additional rate increases may still be on the cards.

“Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable time frame, but that will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks,” he said.

Mr Lowe said the central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold in September came as higher interest rates were already having an impact on inflation, while also noting the uncertain economic outlook, including the ongoing global pressures stemming from China’s property market.

Economists predict we’ve reached the peak of the rate hiking cycle and that we will start to see rates come down sometime in 2024.

Lowe is out and Michele Bullock is in

Mr Lowe will finish at the RBA at the end of next week, before Michele Bullock steps into the role of governor on Monday, September 18.

In the short term, there is a sentiment that there will be no changes to the RBA’s decision-making process under Ms Bullock’s leadership. However, 2024 will see the new monetary policy board adopted, consisting of a governance board and then a separate monetary policy board. The RBA will also possibly be adopting any recommendations coming out of the RBA review. This may see some more debate around the cash rate decision, but is unlikely to have any fundamental implications for the actual setting of interest rates in Australia.

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